Cubs-Astros Game 2 - vs. Chris Sampson

As Ted Lilly rings a single off of Brian Moehler, I bring you Chris Sampson and his six pitches.

cfx	#	pfx_x	pfx_z	mph	deg	rpm
CH	75	-5.5	4.3	85.7	231.9	866.8
CU	90	5.9	-5.8	76.8	223.3	919.9
F2	153	-8.3	4.9	88.8	239.0	1,216.8
F4	114	-4.3	8.3	88.8	207.3	1,183.9
FC	80	-0.9	5.6	86.2	189.1	716.7
SL	45	2.7	3.4	83.2	142.8	555.3

cfx	#	B%	CS%	SS%	F%	X%	HR%	Sw%	Whiff%	B:CS	ISZ%	corner%	SwOOZ%	TaISZ%
CH	75	40.0	14.7	4.0	12.0	29.3	0.0	45.33	8.82	2.7	38.67	14.67	34.78	28.21
CU	90	50.0	15.6	4.4	15.6	14.4	0.0	34.44	12.90	3.2	42.22	7.78	23.08	42.22
F2	153	29.4	13.7	2.6	25.5	27.5	1.3	56.86	4.60	2.1	50.33	11.76	40.79	22.34
F4	114	37.7	14.9	3.5	18.4	24.6	0.0	46.49	7.55	2.5	37.72	14.91	28.17	16.67
FC	80	25.0	12.5	11.3	16.3	33.8	1.3	62.50	18.00	2.0	66.25	8.75	33.33	20.00
SL	45	33.3	4.4	13.3	17.8	31.1	0.0	62.22	21.43	7.5	48.89	17.78	39.13	10.34

Cubs Hit the Road - Game 1 @ Hou vs. Brian Moehler

After an impressive 8-2 homestand, the Cubs head to Texas for three against the Astros. A travel day Thursday is followed by a weekend series against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. The Cubs come home Memorial Day to face the Dodgers.

Brian Moehler faces Ted Lilly Monday night. Moehler has six pitches

cfx	#	pfx_x	pfx_z	mph	deg	rpm
CH	51	-6.9	6.6	82.0	226.7	1,134.2
CU	69	2.7	-1.8	79.7	207.6	443.7
F2	105	-6.2	5.7	89.9	227.7	1,090.7
F4	111	-6.2	10.9	91.3	209.6	1,624.2
FC	137	-1.6	9.5	89.5	189.7	1,226.3
SL	89	-0.5	5.5	88.1	185.5	718.5

I don't think any really stand out. Decent command, it appears.

cfx	#	B%	CS%	SS%	F%	X%	HR%	Sw%	Whiff%	B:CS	ISZ%	corner%	SwOOZ%	TaISZ%
CH	51	29.4	17.6	7.8	19.6	21.6	3.9	52.94	14.81	1.7	50.98	17.65	32.00	20.00
CU	69	31.9	11.6	11.6	17.4	27.5	0.0	56.52	20.51	2.8	47.83	8.70	41.67	23.08
F2	105	31.4	21.9	7.6	13.3	24.8	1.0	46.67	16.33	1.4	51.43	14.29	31.37	31.34
F4	111	25.2	25.2	2.7	24.3	22.5	0.0	49.55	5.45	1.0	53.15	14.41	32.69	28.00
FC	137	35.0	18.2	8.8	21.9	16.1	0.0	46.72	18.75	1.9	37.96	23.36	34.12	20.48
SL	89	37.1	12.4	4.5	19.1	27.0	0.0	50.56	8.89	3.0	48.31	8.99	28.26	22.00

Phil Dumatrait Preview

The Cubs take on lefty Phil Dumatrait today at Wrigley. He looks like an overhand thrower.



That's your basic bag'o'tricks - two fastballs, change, slider, occasional curve.

cfx	#	pfx_x	pfx_z	mph	deg	rpm
CH	78	8.3	5.6	83.0	124.4	1,191.3
CU	31	-1.5	-3.5	78.0	158.9	447.6
F2	302	9.1	7.0	91.4	127.9	1,483.2
F4	257	5.7	9.0	91.6	147.9	1,392.3
SL	154	-0.7	1.5	83.2	184.2	334.3

cfx	#	B%	CS%	SS%	F%	X%	HR%	Sw%	Whiff%	B:CS	ISZ%	corner%	SwOOZ%	TaISZ%
CH	78	41.0	12.8	3.8	12.8	28.2	1.3	46.15	8.33	3.2	43.59	12.82	29.55	25.00
CU	31	38.7	12.9	9.7	16.1	22.6	0.0	48.39	20.00	3.0	41.94	12.90	27.78	17.65
F2	302	42.4	17.2	4.6	13.6	20.5	1.7	40.40	11.48	2.5	47.02	8.94	18.75	29.76
F4	257	41.2	20.2	3.9	20.6	13.6	0.4	38.52	10.10	2.0	44.75	12.45	18.31	28.77
SL	154	35.1	12.3	14.3	18.2	19.5	0.6	52.60	27.16	2.8	39.61	10.39	46.24	30.26

Here are the aggregates:



For the Cubs, it's Jason Marquis

Marquis     mph   pfx_x   pfx_z
Change-Up    83      -8      6
Curveball    74       2     -5
Two-Seamer   90     -10      6
Four-Seamer  91      -8      9
Slider       86      -1      4

You'll notice Marquis and Dumatrait are near mirror images, with Marquis being more towards three-quarters.

Micah Hoffpauir Set to Debut

The move won't be official until Sunday or Monday, but Micah Hoffpauir has left the Iowa Cubs to join the Chicago Cubs for their series in Houston. As heard on KXNO,

Zambrano Pitch ID's

I just posted a brief break-down of Carlos Zambrano's pitches. You can find it at Another Cubs Blog.

Rich Hill Injury Update - Stiff Back

Fresh news from the Des Moines Register this morning indicates Rich was pulled last night in Round Rock due to "stiffness in his back". Look for an update on his condition later today.

Sean Gallagher Update - 5th Pitch

Sean's got a change-up he's been working in now that he's starting. I've corrected my ID's and added today's game. Hat tip to Ross Paul at MLBAM, as it was his real-time pitch ID that found Sean's new pitch.

cfx	#	pfx_x	pfx_z	mph	deg	rpm
CH	6	-9.2	8.2	82.5	228.4	1,442.6
CU	71	7.2	-6.4	74.1	227.2	1,024.6
F2	140	-7.5	8.2	93.3	222.4	1,488.8
F4	103	-2.7	9.0	93.5	196.7	1,272.9
SL	47	3.5	0.8	82.6	137.7	449.0

cfx	#	B%	CS%	SS%	F%	X%	HR%	Sw%	Whiff%	B:CS	ISZ%	corner%	SwOOZ%	TaISZ%
CH	6	83.3	16.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00		5.0	0.00	0.00	0.00
CU	71	40.8	18.3	7.0	19.7	14.1	0.0	40.85	17.24	2.2	40.85	16.90	28.57	31.58
F2	140	35.7	18.6	4.3	16.4	25.0	0.0	45.71	9.38	1.9	52.14	11.43	26.87	30.34
F4	103	35.0	12.6	4.9	26.2	18.4	1.9	51.46	9.43	2.8	49.51	8.74	28.85	21.67
SL	47	40.4	19.1	14.9	10.6	14.9	0.0	40.43	36.84	2.1	36.17	19.15	30.00	28.00
	367	37.9	16.9	6.3	18.8	19.3	0.5	44.96	13.94	2.2	46.32	12.53	27.41	27.83

Here you can see the changes arriving out of the zone

Rich Hill Injured?

Rich Hill left tonight's Iowa Cubs game in Round Rock, TX, during the third inning, due to an apparent injury. The KXNO broadcaster hopes to have an update before the game ends tonight.

Felix Pie got the start, hitting second, between Eric Patterson and Matt Murton. He's 0-2, reaching on an error and was hit by a pitch.

Hector Carrasco has replaced Hill, who was struggling when he exited. In 2 and 2/3, he gave up three walks, two hits - including a home run - and was charged with three earned runs. He also struck-out two.

Updated: Stiff Back

Amateurs and Agents

Kevin Goldstein has a good article in BP (sub req.) about NCAA ballplayers and their "advisers". And I agree with his conclusion, mostly.

Agents do not get paid until their client gets paid, so there is absolutely no reason that amateur players should not openly have the right to retain the services of an agent.

(emphasis mine)

This is the bottom line to most, that the player doesn't get paid. I think some NCAA players already get paid, in the form of tuition and other benefits, so who are we kidding? And if you don't think a 19 year old and his family don't need professional advice on critical career/financial decisions, well, I guess I'm building a straw-man argument here.

Ward and Hoffpauir Update; Wood's new pitch update

First, Wood's new pitch. I can't find it in the data alone, I need to cheat and watch some video. So far, it is important to note that he has what Gameday calls a slider and a curve, but it is debatable how different those pitches are. But, there are no "sliders" that back-up in terms of spin movement, some that just slide less.

Update: The Sun Times says Lou confirmed their report of Ward going on the DL after Sunday's game. Perhaps he's OK to pinch-hit, but not fly.

The Tribune reports Ward is headed to the DL this weekend. If he's going to go, why wait? Yes, the assignment will be retroactive, but why lose the roster spot if it's inevitable? Probably because Micah Hoffpauir is the guy they want to call-up, and he's not on the 40-man roster yet. Thing is, there's room for one more guy right now, so, what's the delay?

Outside of the active 25, here are the rest of the players on the roster

Iowa
Jose Ascanio
Kevin Hart
Sean Marshall
Rich Hill
Neal Cotts
Carmen Pignatiello (DL)
Eric Patterson
Matt Murton
Felix Pie
Sam Fuld

Tennessee
Adam Harben
Billy Petrick
Jeff Samardzija
Jake Fox

60-day DL
Angel Guzman

Angel doesn't count. Piggy is on the Minor League 7-day DL, he counts. That makes 14. Unless there's something I'm missing, or don't get, Micah should be available to dress today, but I guess we'll get Ward on the bench, instead.

Ted Lilly's Curveball - Looking Back, Looking Ahead

Ted Lilly's curveball usage had been the cause of some concern in April. Compared to last year, he was throwing far fewer curves. But we didn't - and still don't- have a clear picture. In the PFX data, there are numbers for Lilly's starts from 5/25/2007 - 5/14/2008. So, a year of data, but no overlapping dates from 2007 and 2008 - yet.




Just for curiosity's sake, let's stick the 2008 in front of the 2007.



I see a trend, or a make-believe trend. But, it looks like we can expect Ted to throw more curves as the season progresses.

In case you're wondering, here's the full set of his pitches, unadjusted. PFX in inches - the curveballs are quite distinct.



Update: time by % chart for all four pitches



Update: curves by ERA for Wrig'

Pirates at Cubs - Gorzelanny and Gallagher preview

Update: Sean added his change-up since moving to the rotation. More here.

The Cubs are hot, 6-1 on the homestand. The Pirates come in with their standard gaggle of lefty starters. Starting with Tom Gorzelanny. Tom comes in with an ERA just shy of 6.00, and back problems. He missed his last start as a result, according to mlb.com.

This is the third look at Gorzelanny on this site, but this one now includes every pitch in the PFX database. For Tom, I have 1661.

Here's the aggregated spin movement chart. Five pitches, but I'm starting to think the CU and SL are worth splitting, but I also suspect they're a matter of arm angle and or speed, not grip. That's for another day.

Tom Gorzelanny

cfx	#	pfx_x	pfx_z	mph	deg	rpm
CH	303	9.7	5.1	83.5	119.1	1,315.4
CU	173	-3.6	-2.6	74.2	141.6	511.0
F2	465	10.0	7.6	90.0	127.4	1,613.8
F4	528	6.6	10.7	90.9	148.7	1,625.9
SL	192	-0.1	2.2	81.6	185.3	364.2

Outcomes:

cfx	#	B%	CS%	SS%	F%	X%	HR%	Sw%	Whiff%	B:CS	ISZ%	corner%	SwOOZ%	TaISZ%
CH	303	37.0	9.9	10.9	19.5	22.4	0.3	53.14	20.50	3.7	41.91	11.88	35.80	17.79
CU	173	48.6	20.2	8.7	7.5	13.9	1.2	31.21	27.78	2.4	39.31	14.45	12.38	29.67
F2	465	38.3	19.8	5.8	17.8	18.1	0.2	41.94	13.85	1.9	46.88	12.90	25.10	30.58
F4	528	38.1	14.4	7.6	25.0	14.8	0.2	47.54	15.94	2.6	40.53	15.15	33.12	22.87
SL	192	38.5	14.1	15.6	16.7	14.6	0.5	47.40	32.97	2.7	44.79	11.98	33.02	28.04
	1661	39.1	15.7	8.7	19.2	17.0	0.4	45.27	19.28	2.5	42.93	13.49	29.22	25.54

Gorzelanny is not exactly a control artist, but the slider version of his breaking pitch is effective. With Soto, DeRosa and Johnson returing to the line-up, I like the Cubs' chances tomorrow. Assuming Gallagher can eek out something more than four full innings of work.

Sean Gallagher

Sean throws Fastball (2-seam and 4-seam), Slider and Curve.

cfx	#	pfx_x	pfx_z	mph	deg	rpm
CU	60	6.8	-5.8	75.0	229.7	972.8
F2	119	-7.5	8.0	92.8	223.2	1,459.8
F4	74	-2.0	8.5	93.6	193.6	1,196.1
SL	23	3.6	1.1	82.8	107.7	454.7

Outcomes:

cfx	#	B%	CS%	SS%	F%	X%	HR%	Sw%	Whiff%	B:CS	ISZ%	corner%	SwOOZ%	TaISZ%
CU	60	45.0	18.3	10.0	13.3	13.3	0.0	36.67	27.27	2.5	33.33	20.00	25.00	27.59
F2	119	34.5	20.2	5.0	14.3	26.1	0.0	45.38	11.11	1.7	49.58	13.45	26.67	28.00
F4	74	37.8	10.8	5.4	27.0	16.2	2.7	51.35	10.53	3.5	43.24	12.16	28.57	14.63
SL	23	56.5	8.7	13.0	8.7	13.0	0.0	34.78	37.50	6.5	34.78	4.35	13.33	22.22
	276	39.5	16.3	6.9	17.0	19.6	0.7	44.20	15.57	2.4	43.12	13.77	25.48	24.03

Good stuff, poor command. <<gulp>>

Ward and Hoffpauir

Daryle Ward is hurting, and I know what a herniated disc is like, so he'll surely need some time off.

Daryle Ward will need a two-week stretch on the disabled list because of a back injury.

Gordon Wittenmyer goes on to speculate on Micah Hoffpauir being called up. Ward is still on the roster, since they'll try an epidural (not something I'd recommend) to see if that provides immediate relief. He needs to rehab that thing no matter what - epidural, surgery, no surgery. That's why I opted for the latter.

Let's go get Maddux in trouble. The top 5 guys are the usual, but the bottom of the order is Edmonds-Cedeno-Blanco.

Brewers Lock-Up Braun for 8 Years

Well, Ryan Braun will be a thorn in our side for many years to come, according to mlb.com

The Brewers announced a record contract extension for left fielder Ryan Braun on Thursday that sets the standard for players with zero to three years of Major League experience.

This deal takes Braun past his arbitration years, and a couple years into free agency. Good deal for both parties, assuming Milwaukee got reasonable insurance on it.

Cubs Show More Patience; Edmonds Always Patient

Fukudome clearly takes a lot of pitches. Every Cub, including Reed Johnson, is swinging at less pitches out of the zone this season. Except Felix Pie and Alfonso Soriano. Related? Good coaching? Who knows.

I include Jim Edmonds, too, because, well, I guess I have to, considering he's, you know, on the Cubs. Hendry sounds cautiously optimistic, if optimistic at all, about Edmonds. His Out of Zone Swing Rate (oSw%) is pretty much unchanged, slightly up.

           oSw% (change)
Soto       16.5 (-2.9)
Fukudome   17.2 
Lee        17.5 (-4.6)
DeRosa     18.1 (-2.7)
Theriot    18.2 (-6.3)
Murton     20.8 (-4.1)
Edmonds    22.1 (+0.7)
Fontenot   22.8 (-3.7)
Ward       24.4 (-5.8)
Ramirez    24.4 (-8.1)
Johnson    29.3 (-8.8)
Cedeno     31.4 (-8.1)
Blanco     34.9 (-3.0)
Pie        36.1 (+4.5)
Soriano    44.3 (+1.9)

Soto is awesome, eh? I have to credit Theriot, he's doing a good job.

The Curves We Saw

Last night the Cubs pounded out 11 runs over the course of just two innings. Despite their struggles, the Padres only used Randy Wolf, Sean Henn and Justin Germano. Both Wolf and Germano throw big, slow curves. I looked at Wolf before the game, and here's what curves both guys threw in Monday's game.



Germano's looked nastier from my point of view last night. It does appear to have more movement. While Wolf's was a slow yakker, and hard to hit, he couldn't throw it for strikes. Even with my extra large zone (hitters swing at everything within a baseball of the plate), you can see that here.



Germano, with all that movement, gets the ball to be up in the zone safely, since it turns into slo-pitch softball. The Cubs took all seven of them, and four were strikes. They did chase three of Wolf's, but they got the call on 13 of their 17 takes.

Summit Summary

A great time was had by all at the Cubs/Padres game tonight. Four nights, three games, two cities for me is pretty cool, and tiring. My pre-game coffee is still working.

I've got a summary of the trip to San Francisco for the PITCHf/x Summit over at Maddog's.